In 2026, the Italian Tuono almond market hinges on three very practical levers: the price lists of the Italian Borse Merci (commodity exchanges that act as an operational “anchor”), the actual shelling yield (which turns an “in-shell” price into a kernel cost), and import pressure (because Italy does not cover total demand). If today, in February 2026, you need to set purchases or sales through to the 2027 harvest, it makes sense to already factor in flowering, irrigation availability and expected quality, because these are the elements that move price differentials even before volumes do.
Which variables will determine 2026–2027 quotations (production, yield, stocks and imports)
In Italy, the practical reference is the Borse Merci (Italian commodity exchanges used as pricing benchmarks in domestic trade). On the Bari Chamber of Commerce (CCIAA) price list (ex-warehouse Bari) in January 2026, the quotations show sweet bulk shelled almonds, origin, €6,000–6,200/t and in-shell almonds (base price by yield) €5,500–5,700/t. These figures do not “predict” 2027, but they provide a market scale from which many B2B negotiations start.
Source: Fruit & Vegetables and Almonds Price List 27.01.2026 (CCIAA Bari)
Yield per hectare matters, but “usable” yield matters more. In practice, even with stable volumes, if the season brings small fruit, lower specific weight or a worse shelling yield, the cost per kg of kernel rises. This is the “kernel basis” logic: the buyer is purchasing a content (the seed), not just kg of raw product. Abnormal heat, cold snaps during bloom, and irrigation management are among the factors most often reflected in size grade and yield.
Imports remain a structural lever on Italian prices. A sector summary puts Italy’s almond self-sufficiency at around 41%, so in many seasons demand from the confectionery and ingredients industry exceeds domestic supply and the domestic price tends to move under an international “umbrella”.
Source: FreshPlaza, nuts in Italy
The global “umbrella price” depends above all on the major origins. To understand where the 2026–2027 market may go, many buyers watch US estimates: an industry source reports for California an estimated 2025 crop of 3.0 billion lb. If global availability is ample, it becomes harder to sustain high premiums on Italian origin; if it tightens, differentials for compliant, ready-to-ship Italian lots can widen.
Source: almonds.org, California 2025 crop estimate
Stocks (carry-over) shift spot premiums. When warehouses are “short”, premiums increase for immediately available, fully compliant lots (moisture, breakage, defects). This is where the difference between spot and a quarterly contract often shows: on spot you pay for speed and certainty of the lot; on contract you pay for less volatility, but you take the risk that the market falls.
How to read prices by segment: shelled, blanched, flour/paste and most requested sizes
The first thing to clarify is the unit of measure and the delivery term. On Borsa Merci, pricing is often in €/t and with terms such as ex-warehouse (as in the Bari list). In smaller ingredient contracts it is common to work in €/kg, but the economic logic is the same: what am I buying, to which specifications, and with what yield.
“In-shell” and “shelled” are not comparable without yield. The Bari list reports in-shell as a base price by yield, meaning the price implicitly incorporates an expected shelling yield. A useful operational formula in negotiation is:
Equivalent kernel price = In-shell price / Shelling yield
If actual yield drops, the equivalent kernel price rises even if the “in-shell” price stays flat. This is one of the most important points when discussing Italian Tuono almond prices, market and quotations 2026–2027, because Tuono can be traded with premiums/discounts tied precisely to yield and kernel uniformity.
Blanched almonds usually trade higher than shelled almonds with skin. The reason is simple: there is an extra processing step, there is waste and weight loss, and the raw material must be more “clean” aesthetically as well. If the starting lot has defects or high breakage, blanching becomes more expensive and the buyer tends to pay less for the raw material or tighten tolerances.
Processed products have different drivers than raw material. Almond flour, granules and paste/cream (gelato, bakery, confectionery) depend heavily on standardisation and specifications: particle size, oxidative stability, and traceability and certification requirements. In phases of tightness on raw material, these segments can move also due to plant capacity constraints and processing costs, not only due to the incoming almond price.
Size grade translates into specifications and selection. Many buyers work by size classes and forms (whole, halves, slices, diced) and pay more when tight selection and uniformity are required. In practice: whole and “good-looking” for snacks and pastry; controlled breakage and consistent particle size for flour and granules. Sorting is often the line item that creates the differential between an “industrial” lot and a “premium” lot.
What impact do quality and specifications (moisture, defects, aflatoxins) have on the final price
Quality is paid for because it reduces downstream risk and costs. A concrete example is in the Bari list for shelled almonds, where typical specification parameters appear such as Impurities max 0.5%; Breakage max 5%; Moisture max 6%. When a lot falls outside these tolerances, in practice three things happen: devaluation, a request for reworking (sorting), or rejection.
Source: CCIAA Bari Price List 27.01.2026
Aflatoxins are a price variable because they change channel and liability. Regulation (EU) 2023/915 sets different limits for almonds depending on whether the product is to be sorted/treated or intended for the consumer/ingredients. The regulation reports, for example, aflatoxin B1 12 µg/kg and total 15 µg/kg for certain destinations prior to sorting, and B1 8 µg/kg and total 10 µg/kg for more “direct” destinations.
Source: Regulation (EU) 2023/915
The economic effect of “borderline” lots is immediate. If a lot risks not meeting limits for direct use, it may be diverted to a channel that requires sorting and additional controls. This means extra cost, longer lead times and risk of waste. As a result, the price paid to the supplier tends to fall and conditions become stricter, often with payment linked to analytical results.
Typical buyer requests are repetitive, but decisive. They generally ask for a COA per lot, an analytical plan (aflatoxins, moisture and oxidation indicators when relevant), field-to-lot-to-processing traceability, foreign-body management and plant standards (schemes such as BRC/IFS). Even when they do not change the “base price”, they change the final price because they reduce disputes and returns.
Quality does not mean safety only. Colour and odour, uniformity, kernel integrity (breakage), presence of bitter almonds, shelf-life and packaging (vacuum or modified atmosphere) affect complaints and yield in production. And when the market is tight, “clean” and stable lots earn a premium.
When to buy or sell in 2026–2027: seasonality, negotiation windows and contracts
Seasonality drives negotiation windows. In Italy, harvest is in summer (roughly July–August), so you have three operating phases: pre-harvest (forwards based on expected yield and size), post-harvest (more availability and often more price competition), and the spring–summer “bridge” phase (when stocks and imports matter). The Borse Merci publish periodic quotations that help read these transitions.
Source: Fruit & Vegetables and Almonds price lists 2026, CCIAA Bari
The contract type changes risk, not only price. Spot ex-warehouse is useful to cover urgencies and peaks, but it includes availability premiums. Staggered-delivery contracts (monthly or quarterly) help stabilise cost and service. Indexed prices (to a Borsa Merci list or a foreign benchmark) reduce the risk of “missing the level”, but require clear rules on quality, yield and price-fixing timing.
One procurement practice is to split “core” volumes and “tactical” volumes. Many processors cover a main share with contracts and keep a share to take advantage of possible market corrections. It is not a fixed rule, but as an approach it avoids being fully exposed to spot or fully locked into a price that later becomes out of market. In this logic, Tuono almond prices 2026–2027 are managed more through contractual discipline than through “perfect timing”.
The KPIs to monitor now, in February 2026, are those that anticipate the 2027 harvest. Weather during flowering and fruit set, irrigation water availability, signals of rising defects and waste, import lead times and costs, and processing costs (blanching, milling) that affect differentials for processed products. In Puglia, moreover, the phytosanitary risk often mentioned by operators, such as Xylella, enters expectations because it can influence availability and management costs even when it does not immediately translate into a quoted number.
The clauses that really move price are in the specification. Quality tolerances, penalties for non-compliance, guaranteed yields, approval samples, blanching yield and dispute management. If these items are not written well, the “nominal” price matters little.
What scenarios to expect for the Tuono market 2026–2027: price range and signals to monitor
The observable floor today is the Bari list of January 2026. We are talking about €6,000–6,200/t for sweet bulk shelled almonds, origin, and €5,500–5,700/t for in-shell base by yield (ex-warehouse Bari). From here, 2026–2027 scenarios can be built, remembering that Tuono, origin Italy may carry premiums or discounts linked to origin, size grade, contract structure and traceability requirements.
Source: CCIAA Bari Price List 27.01.2026
Three practical scenarios, without “guessing” unsupported numbers, can be described as follows:
- Base scenario (continuity): prices oscillate around Borsa Merci references, with differentials driven by yield and quality. Here the market rewards compliant lots and well-specified contracts, and penalises off-spec and late availability.
- Bull scenario (tightness on availability and quality): unfavourable weather during flowering/fruit set, water stress and an increase in defects or non-compliance. In this case premiums on “clean”, ready lots increase, and the spread between shelled, blanched and processed products tends to widen due to processing constraints and waste.
- Bear scenario (pressure from global supply): ample international availability and competitive imports. Here origin and quality premiums compress more easily, especially on spot, and it becomes more
The global drivers that amplify or dampen these scenarios run through estimates from the major origins. The 3.0 billion lb estimate for California 2025 is an example of the type of signal the market uses to set expectations on availability and price pressure.
Source: almonds.org, California 2025 crop estimate
The “early warnings” that matter for buyers and processors are those that impact compliance and yield. Weather anomalies during bloom, irrigation water, rising breakage and defects, contaminant alerts and the resulting uplift for lots that meet EU limits. Regulation (EU) 2023/915 is the legal reference that makes this variable very tangible in negotiation.
Source: Regulation (EU) 2023/915
The spread between segments changes with the cycle. If compliant raw material is scarce, blanched almonds and pastes/flours can rise more than raw product because plant capacity, energy and waste add up. If there is surplus, quality premiums compress and spot becomes more aggressive.
Procurement monitoring checklist 2026–2027:
- Borsa Merci price lists (Bari and other markets) and their weekly trend
- International crop estimates (USA and main origins) as leading signals
- Stocks and carry-over, especially for ex-warehouse availability
- Demand trends in the confectionery and ingredients industry (product mix and specifications)
- Quality and food safety requirements: moisture, defects, aflatoxins and EU compliance