February 17, 2026 | by Le Due Querce editorial team
The 2025 season marked one of the most serious production crises in the recent history of the global hazelnut sector. Turkey, which normally supplies 60-70% of global hazelnuts, saw its production collapse to about 450-500,000 tons, compared to 600-700,000 tons in a normal year. A 36-38% drop that doubled international prices and forced major global buyers, led by Ferrero, to urgently seek alternatives.
For Italian producers, this crisis represents a strategic opportunity window not seen in years.
What happened in Turkey
The crisis began in spring. Between April and May 2025, late frosts hit 26 provinces of the Black Sea region, damaging flowers and compromising fruit set. The provinces of Ordu (which alone produces 31% of Turkish hazelnuts), Giresun, Sakarya and Samsun recorded harvest losses between 40% and 90% in some areas.
In June and July, when plants should have been in the kernel filling phase, prolonged drought and heat waves caused the “tip burn” phenomenon (apical necrosis), further reducing yields. Official data from TurkStat (Turkish Statistical Institute) confirmed in January 2026 a 38.5% drop in overall hazelnut production compared to the previous year.
It’s not just a matter of quantity. Part of the 2025 Turkish harvest was reported as below-average quality: smaller calibers, higher percentage of empty shells, greater incidence of defects. This pushed some operators to attempt mixing new hazelnuts with old stocks, a prohibited practice that testifies to market tension.
The impact on international prices
The consequences on prices were immediate and dramatic. The average price of Turkish shelled hazelnuts 11/13 mm (the most requested caliber by industry) rose from about $9,000 per ton at the beginning of 2025 to $18,000 per ton in October 2025. A doubling in less than a year.
At farm-gate level (price paid to farmers), in-shell hazelnuts went from about $3 per kg in 2023 to $5 in 2024, reaching peaks of $9-10 per kg in autumn 2025. The Turkish Grain Board (TMO), the state body that regulates the domestic market, set the purchase price for the 2025-2026 season at 190-200 Turkish lira per kg (about $4.70-4.90), but the open market quickly exceeded these thresholds.
Ferrero, the world’s largest hazelnut buyer (consumes about 100,000 tons per year), offered Turkish producers 300-310 Turkish lira per kg depending on quality. However, according to industry sources reported by Financial Times and Fresh Plaza, Ferrero drastically reduced volumes purchased from Turkey, preferring to draw on its strategic stocks and diversify towards other suppliers.
The market response: Chile, USA and Italy
Faced with the Turkish shortage, producers from other countries responded with significant production increases, although insufficient to fill the gap.
Chile recorded the most spectacular jump: from 58,000 tons in 2024 to about 120,000 tons in 2025, a 106% increase. This is the result of multi-year investments supported by Ferrero itself, which financed new plantations in Chile to reduce dependence on Turkey. Chile also has the advantage of counter-seasonal harvest (March-April), allowing it to supply the market when northern hemisphere stocks are running out.
The United States increased production by 19%, reaching about 106,000 tons. American production, concentrated almost entirely in Oregon, benefits from among the highest yields per hectare in the world (about 2,500 kg/ha) and consistent quality, characteristics that make it particularly attractive for the premium segment.
Georgia and Azerbaijan maintained stable productions around 60-75,000 tons each, offering a partial buffer for European processors seeking alternatives to Turkey.
Italy, on the other hand, saw its production fall by 25% to about 65,000 tons. The decline was caused by adverse weather conditions and, above all, by strong pressure from the hazelnut weevil (Curculio nucum), the parasite that damages fruits before harvest. This means that Italy, despite benefiting from higher prices, was unable to fully exploit the opportunity window created by the Turkish crisis.
What it means for Italian producers
For an Italian hazelnut producer, the 2025-2026 season represents a complex but opportunity-rich scenario.
On one hand, the Turkish crisis has driven up prices in Italy as well. Quotations for quality Italian hazelnuts (Tonda Gentile delle Langhe, Tonda di Giffoni, Tonda Gentile Romana) have followed international price trends, albeit with a premium due to DOP/IGP certification and superior organoleptic quality.
On the other hand, the 25% production decline in Italy reduced volumes available for export. Those who have hazelnuts to sell right now have a very strong competitive advantage: major European buyers (Ferrero, Lindt, other processors) are actively seeking alternatives to Turkey and are willing to pay premium prices for certified, traceable, consistently quality batches.
The key to exploiting this window is the ability to guarantee:
- Complete batch traceability (harvest year, origin, storage)
- Verifiable sensory quality (absence of defects, uniform caliber, consistent shelling yield)
- Willingness to provide samples for roasting and processing tests
- Certifications (if available: DOP, IGP, organic)
Italian producers without DOP/IGP certification can still compete in the international market by focusing on intrinsic product quality and traceability. At a time when Turkey, despite being the dominant supplier, has quality problems as well as quantity, a well-preserved and documented Italian hazelnut has a very high perceived value.
Prospects for the 2026-2027 season
Forecasts for the next season are uncertain. On one hand, the 2025-2026 winter in Turkey was relatively mild and early estimates speak of a possible partial production recovery. On the other hand, damage to buds and branches caused by the April 2025 frost could have residual effects even on the 2026 flowering.
In Italy, pressure from the hazelnut weevil remains high and requires more effective integrated defense strategies. Climate change continues to make production unpredictable, with increasingly frequent late frosts and summer drought periods impacting both quantity and quality.
For those who produce hazelnuts, this is the time to consolidate relationships with buyers, demonstrate supply reliability and build a reputation based on verifiable quality. The Turkish crisis has opened the market’s eyes: dependence on a single large supplier is too high a risk. Those who manage to position themselves as a credible alternative today will have competitive advantages even when Turkish production returns to normal levels.
To understand the global context in which this crisis fits, read World hazelnut production: geography, volumes and what really drives prices.
To understand how to evaluate a hazelnut batch and guarantee quality to buyers, consult How to evaluate a batch of in-shell hazelnuts: sensory controls, defects and right questions.
To orient yourself among Italian designations and correctly position the product, see Hazelnuts: disambiguation of names for orders and specifications (Piedmont, Giffoni, Romana).